Generate Moving Averages of 2, 3, 5, and 10 weeks and forecast WTI for the next period.
Calculate the MAD for each Moving Average model and comment on which is the best model
among these. (10 pts)
Generate Exponential Smoothing models with alpha of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8. Forecast WTI for
the next period. (12 pts)
Calculate the MAD for each Exponential Smoothing model and comment on which is the best
model among these. (10 pts)
Plot the Moving Average models with the actual WTI on one chart AND on a separate chart plot
the Exponential Smoothing models with actual WTI. (6 pts)
Compare the forecasts from the all the models (Linear trend, trend with seasonality, moving
average and exponential smoothing) generated using the MAD. Determine which model Juan
should present to his boss.
